SCIENCE UNDER AUTOMATION
Prospective multi-pathogen forecasting, v2
ERA generated forecasting software during the 2025–26 US respiratory season. A selected ensemble ranked first overall in the authors’ report of official post-season evaluation.
What this result supports
Methodological approaches were usually supplied. Surveillance data and model selection remain part of the configured forecasting system; public-health interventions were not automated.
Evidence record: Primary preprint; prospective real-time evaluation. Checked: 2026-10-21.
Where this evidence is used
Population health
- Generate and revise forecasting software: ERA builds executable models, usually from supplied methodological directions.
- Evaluate predictions prospectively: The prospective season evaluation tests forecasts on outcomes unavailable when predictions were made.
- Interpret outcomes against bias and competing explanations: Statistical and predictive tools assist analysis, but forecasts alone do not identify intervention effects.