SCIENCE UNDER AUTOMATION
AIFS Single 1.1.0
Revised forecast system reports 4–6% skill gains; operational lineage since February 2025.
What this result supports
Gains compare versions and variables. Observation collection and physics-based initialization remain external dependencies.
Evidence record: peer_reviewed. Checked: 2026-10-20.
Where this evidence is used
Weather forecasting
- Use supplied atmospheric analyses: Operational inputs are supplied by a separate observing and assimilation system.
- Produce a global forecast: AIFS runs operational forecasts; evaluation covers 2023.
- Evaluate forecast skill: Standard verification is available; specialist monitoring remains.
- Resolve local extremes: Global skill does not establish reliable local extreme precipitation.
- Adapt to new observing conditions: No matched autonomy result in this evidence set.
- Validate and issue a consequential warning: Forecast skill does not test independent warning decisions.